Covid19 pandemic : My Views
My Views based on available global data and trends from US , Data from urban and rural parts of India and state of Goa
1) We have not yet seen the full surge and may be second surge after unlocking
2) The urban surge is going to be apparent, a fortnight after full unlocking ( public transportation etc )
3) The spread is now more in rural and remote areas as the unlocking phases begin and travel across states and districts begins.
4) 2020 is definitely gone but even a part of 2021 would be lost after the second surge.
5) Second , Third surge IS going to occur once the unlocking is complete and “normal” businesses begin.
6) Repeating this point .. Vaccine is NOT the answer to this pandemic.. Vaccine, if successful,may be available 1–2 years down the line.
7) This vaccine may not be able to protect the vulnerable population but may help in boosting immunity of the healthy population and Health workers etc.
8) Mutations in strains of #SARSCovid2 ( #Corona virus ) are common like the one in Influenza A, HIV etc.
9) Drug therapy is the only solution. That may take more time than vaccine !!
10) The scary part is that, #SARSCovid mutants have a potential to be used in biological warfare / terrorism !
Based on population data related to Covid19 , I have designed three terms : “Immunological fitness”, “Immunological status” and “Immunological Health” of a cohort or an individual.
These three would be surrogate markers and could determine the morbidity , vulnerability and spread of SARSCov2 in a population or a cohort. Could serve as important markers in relation to Public Health and be a determinant of healthcare intervention / outcomes to initiatives or treatments.
Similar to Mental and Physical health , Immunological Health may be included as a part of general health status of a subject or patient to access vulnerability to infectious agents , especially viral infections.
